Generation X will suffer more from cancer than baby boomers

Members of Generation X, born between 1965 and 1980, are at a higher risk of being diagnosed with cancer at age 60 than their parents, according to a recent study. This troubling trend raises questions about the evolving cancer rates across generations.


This prediction stems from an analysis of medical records of 3.8 million Americans diagnosed with various types of "invasive" cancer between 1992 and 2018. The term "invasive" describes cancer that has spread from its original tissues to surrounding tissues.

Researchers used these data to plot age incidence curves, thereby visualizing the number of people diagnosed at a given age, here 60 years. These curves help capture the trajectory of each type of cancer within the population and make projections on future diagnosis rates.

Published on June 10 in JAMA Network Open, the study estimates that Generation X members are less likely than baby boomers to develop certain cancers at 60. For women, this includes lung cancer and cervical cancer, and for men, lung cancer, liver cancer, and gallbladder cancer.

However, the rates of many other cancers are higher for Generation X at 60 compared to baby boomers. For both sexes, this includes thyroid, kidney, and colon cancers. These increases negate the observed declines, resulting in an overall increase in cancer rates for Generation X.

The study could not estimate cancer rates for younger generations, such as Millennials. However, the authors predict that cancer rates in the United States will remain "unacceptably" high for decades.

According to researchers, the increase in obesity and sedentary behavior could partially explain this rise. Additionally, recent environmental exposures, such as the advent of ultra-processed foods in the 1980s, might play a role.