Collapse of the Eastern Roman Empire: the real reason? 🏺

Do empires collapse due to natural disasters or diseases? A question that has long intrigued, but the answers are not always where we expect them. A recent study challenges conventional ideas about the decline of the Eastern Roman Empire.


Contrary to popular belief, natural disasters and epidemics may not have been the main causes of the decline of the Eastern Roman Empire in the 6th century. Research published in Klio shows that archaeological and historical data do not support this theory. Researchers used massive databases to analyze demographic and economic changes.

The study examined micro and macroeconomic data from various archaeological sites. Researchers reanalyzed sites such as the ancient city of Elusa in the Negev Desert. Contrary to previous conclusions, the decline only began in the 7th century, well after the climatic and epidemic events of the 6th century.

Large-scale data, including thousands of archaeological sites and shipwrecks, revealed an increase in prosperity and demographics in the 6th century. Maritime trade reached record levels, indicating a thriving economy. This prosperity strongly contrasts with the image of a declining empire.

The decline of the Eastern Roman Empire seems more linked to strategic errors and military defeats against the Persians in the 7th century. These events weakened the empire, paving the way for the rise of Islam. Researchers emphasize that climate changes, although real in some regions, did not have the devastating impact often assumed.


This study shows the importance of re-examining historical assumptions with robust data. It also highlights the complexity of factors influencing the fate of empires. Lessons from the past could be valuable for understanding current challenges related to climate change.

What about the Justinian Plague?

The Justinian Plague is the first documented plague pandemic, occurring between 541 and 544 in the Eastern Roman Empire. It caused millions of deaths and has been attributed to the bacterium Yersinia pestis.

This epidemic had a significant impact on the demography and economy of the time. However, its role in the decline of the Eastern Roman Empire is now being questioned by new research.

Recent studies suggest that the Justinian Plague did not cause an immediate decline. Archaeological data show economic and demographic continuity in the 6th century, challenging traditional theories.

The Justinian Plague remains a subject of debate among historians and archaeologists. New research methods, such as DNA analysis, could provide more precise answers in the coming years.

How are archaeological data used to study ancient empires?

Archaeological data are essential for understanding ancient societies. They include artifacts, architectural structures, and human remains, which provide clues about daily life, economy, and demography.

Researchers use techniques like carbon-14 dating to determine the age of objects. This method allows for precise dating of archaeological sites and reconstruction of historical chronologies.

Modern databases, compiling thousands of sites, enable large-scale analyses. These tools have revealed unexpected trends, such as the continued prosperity of the Eastern Roman Empire in the 6th century.

Archaeology continues to evolve with new technologies. Digital methods and genetic analyses open new perspectives for the study of ancient empires.